EMEA Commercial Real Estate Market: Strategic Outlook for 2026 from CGPH Banque d’affaires
- Alessandro Montefiori
- 4 days ago
- 5 min read
Introduction
At CGPH Banque d’affaires, we have closely monitored the EMEA commercial real estate market, a landscape undergoing one of its most significant re-pricings in over a decade. The convergence of macroeconomic recalibration, structural shifts in occupier demand, and intensifying capital selectivity is reshaping how institutional investors deploy capital across the region.
As a firm specialized in structuring cross-border investments and complex capital stacks, we see a growing divergence in asset performance and a strategic realignment that is redefining investment priorities heading into 2025.
Macro Reset: The Foundations of Repricing Commercial Real Estate
Throughout 2025, EMEA markets underwent a major valuation adjustment. Stabilizing interest-rate expectations have created the first conditions for renewed investor confidence. Nonetheless, a disconnect persists between buyer return thresholds and seller expectations, keeping transaction volumes low compared to historical averages.
Valuations have corrected across most asset classes, with secondary offices experiencing the steepest declines.
Debt availability remains selective, favoring core assets with strong ESG credentials and predictable cash flows. This environment is driving increased demand for private debt solutions and creative bridge financing to fill liquidity gaps.
Liquidity conditions are fragmented, with some markets – particularly the UK and parts of Continental Europe – leading price discovery.
Despite these challenges, the repricing phase is laying the groundwork for a cyclical re-entry, and we at CGPH Banque d’affaires are observing renewed investor interest in opportunistic and value-add strategies.
Sector Analysis: Diverging Performance
Office Sector
The office segment remains at the epicenter of market transformation. Across major EMEA hubs (London, Paris, Dubai, Frankfurt, Amsterdam) the adoption of hybrid work has become structurally embedded, reducing net absorption and pushing vacancy rates higher, especially in older stock.
This produced a pronounced split:
Prime, ESG-compliant grade A offices continue to outperform, with resilient occupancy and stable rent profiles.
Secondary buildings face significant obsolescence risk, with many requiring deep retrofits or alternative-use conversion.
Refinancing risk intensifies as loans underwritten at pre-2022 valuations approach maturity, creating pressure for equity injections or recapitalization.
The winners in this environment will be investors willing to undertake repositioning or conversion strategies aligned with sustainability mandates.
Industrial & Logistic Sector
In contrast to offices, the industrial and logistics sector remains one of the strongest performers in the commercial real estate market. Driven by e-commerce penetration, nearshoring, and supply-chain reconfiguration, demand remains robust, particularly around strategic transport corridors and last-mile hubs.
Vacancy rates are at a multi-year lows in many sub-markets.
Rental growth continues to exceed expectations, buoyed by limited new supply.
Capital continues to flow from institutional investors prioritizing defensive, GDP-resilient assets.
We at CGPH Banque d’affaires view 2026 as another strong year for industrials and logistics, with opportunities emerging in both core assets and development pipelines.
Retail Sector
Retail across EMEA has surprised to the upside in 2025. High-street and essential-retail formats are experiencing a recovery in footfall and spending, supported by the normalization of tourism flows. Retail parks are outperforming due to convenience and diversified tenant mixes.
Investors are selectively re-engaging with retail due to yield premiums relative to other sectors. Well-located assets with food anchors or experiential concepts remain highly competitive. In 2026, we expect performance to remain highly location-specific, but income-driven investors are expected to continue rotating selectively into defensive retail assets.
Living & Alternative Sectors
The living and alternative segments are benefiting from strong demographic and technological drivers. They are now among the top priorities for global capital entering the commercial real estate market.
Multifamily/Build-to-rent:Â steady occupancy levels, regulatory tailwinds in several markets, and resilient rental growth make this segment attractive for long-term capital.
Student housing:Â structural undersupply across key European university cities is driving pre-leasing strength and development interest.
Data Centers & Life Sciences:Â AI-driven compute demand and biotech innovation are revolutionizing the alternative space. Land availability and power constraints create high barriers to entry, increasing asset defensibility.
Senior housing:Â Ageing demographics across Europe duel demand for healthcare-integrated living solutions.
At CGPH Banque d’affaires, we expect in 2026 to solidify alternatives as a core allocation segment, particularly for investors seeking stabilized income with strong demographic tailwinds.
EMEA Commercial Real Estate Outlook: Rebound Potential in 2026
The coming year presents one of the most dynamic opportunity sets in recent memory. We anticipate a cautious but steady recovery in transaction volumes in 2026, driven by:
Interest-rate cuts, improving financing conditions.
Refinancing wave peaking through 2026-2027, prompting restructurings and asset releases.
Private credit expansion, filling the gap left by traditional lenders.
Increased appetite for value-add and distressed strategies, particularly in offices and select retail sub-sectors.
Investors with dry power will be well-positioned to capitalize on pricing dislocations and recapitalization needs emerging across the region.
The Strategic Role of CGPH Banque d’affaires in 2026
As a boutique investment advisory firm with deep expertise in cross-border investment, CGPH Banque d’affaires supports institutional investors in navigating the new EMEA landscape.
Our platform integrates:
Private debt solutions and mezzanine financing;
Institutional capital syndication and club deals;
Real estate & alternative asset structuring;
M&A and corporate finance advisory;
allowing us to design capital strategies that address repricing cycles, refinancing pressures, and emerging sector opportunities.
In 2026, CGPH is uniquely positioned to assist clients in:
Recapitalizing distressed or transitional assets;
Sourcing private debt funds and private debt investors;
Structuring value-add and opportunistic entries;
Navigating ESG-driven regulatory frameworks;
Executing complex cross-border acquisitions.
Conclusion
From our perspective at CGPH Banque d’affaires, the EMEA commercial real estate market is shifting from stress to opportunity. As the region enters 2026, valuation clarity is improving, liquidity is cautiously returning, and the sector is stabilizing.
Logistics, living, and alternatives continue to lead structurally, while the office market remains in a multi-year transformation requiring targeted repositioning strategies.
For investors, 2026 offers a unique window to deploy capital into repriced assets, distressed refinancing situations, and sectors benefiting from long-term structural demand. The coming year will reward those prepared to act decisively as capital markets reopen and fundamentals strengthen.
Speak with our Investment Banking Team
CGPH Banque d’Affaires supports institutional investors, global corporations and family offices in structuring cross-border investments, private debt solutions and capital strategies across EMEA. Contact Us
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. What drives sector divergence in 2026?
Differing demand patterns, ESG requirements, and financing selectivity push logistics and living ahead while secondary offices lag.
2. Why do offices remain challenged?
Hybrid work, high vacancy rates, and a refinancing wave in 2026 weigh heavily on non-core assets.
3. Which sectors lead into 2026?
Logistics, multifamily, student housing, and data centers show the strongest fundamentals.
4. How will 2026 rate cuts impact the market?
They should ease debt costs, narrow pricing gaps, and unlock stalled transactions.
5. Where are the strongest opportunities?
Office retrofits, distressed refinancings, selective retail repositioning, and high-growth alternative sectors.
